It’s time to say hello to the dreaded hurricane season, even though we really don’t want to. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and, as it turns out, it’s looking to be one of the busiest on record.
Forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center predict it’s going to be an “above average” hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are categorized as 3 or higher.
This is the highest number of hurricanes predicted by NOAA in its annual May outlook, surpassing the forecast of 14 to 23 storms in 2010.
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. According to the weather agency, there’s an 85% chance of an above-normal season due to a variety of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures and developing La Niña conditions that will reduce wind shear in the Atlantic and favor tropical storm formation.
As one of the strongest El Niños ever observed nears its end, NOAA predicts a quick transition to La Niña conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because they tend to lesson wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This outlook follows Colorado State University’s, which also anticipated an “extremely active” hurricane season this year with the potential of 23 named storms. You can read more about it here.
Additionally, this hurricane season has the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which which can eventually form into tropical systems in the Atlantic. Only time will tell what’s to come, but it’s important to be prepared for severe weather. For information on how to plan and prepare for hurricane season, visit noaa.gov/hurricane-prep.