We waved goodbye to the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season in November, which saw an above-average 20 storms and left a mark on record books as the fourth most-named storms since 1950. Needless to say, it was not a tearful goodbye. Now lying ahead, the 2024 hurricane season is shaping up to be an extremely active one — possibly record-breaking — according to forecasters.
Colorado State University, a prominent hurricane forecast center, released its latest report last week on what could be in store in the coming season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Researchers anticipate a total of 23 named storms, 11 of which are expected to become hurricanes and five to become major hurricanes of Category 3 intensity or higher. In comparison, the 1991-2020 average included about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
In the report, CSU points to record warm ocean temperatures and a likely transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions as reasons for the active season. It is heat in the ocean that gives hurricanes their energy and intensity, while La Niña tends to increase the number of hurricanes to develop by reducing wind shear.
“Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions,” the forecast reads. “Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.”
The chances of major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean are also “well above average.” Forecasters estimate the following probabilities for at least one major hurricane making landfall on these coastal areas:
- 62% chance somewhere on the entire continental U.S. coast, compared to a 43% average based on data from 1880 to 2020.
- 34% chance along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key), compared to 21% from 1880 to 2020.
- 42% chance on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, compared to 27% from 1880 to 2020.
Other forecasters are set to release their own hurricane season reports, likely including similar predictions to Colorado. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release its forecast in May, and CSU will issue its next update on June 11. You can read more on the CSU forecast here.