For us here in Florida, escalating sea levels never stray too far from our minds. With its low elevation and over 8,000 miles of shoreline, the Sunshine State is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea levels. This is demonstrated by several studies published throughout the years, citing that global sea level has been rising over the past century and the rate has only accelerated in recent decades. A 2022 report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) states that at least two feet of sea level rise is increasingly likely by 2100 due to the rate of emissions.
“Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 – 5 feet (0.5 – 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 – 7 feet (1.1 – 2.1 meters) by the end of this century,” the report reads.
NOAA has created a Sea Level Rise Viewer tool, which maps out different scenarios of how the state may look in the coming decades due to the ocean’s rise. The tool looks as far out as that same year, 2100.
Should sea levels climb 6 feet or more, much of Florida’s coastline would become submerged. Down south, Homestead and a large portion of Miami would be immersed in water, with the Keys and the rest of Monroe County bearing the brunt. Other coastal cities like Cape Coral and Jacksonville would significantly retreat.
A sliding scale will even show you specific landmarks and how they would look under rising sea levels. For example, the steps leading up to the Main House at Vizcaya Museum and Gardens would be entirely flooded if levels rose to 10 feet.
Similarly, Key West’s Southernmost point buoy could be inundated if the worst case scenario were to play out.
In the year 2100, the best case scenario for sea levels in Miami Beach shows a 1.02 foot rise in sea level, while the worst case scenario shows a 7.02 foot rise.
Even more, Vaca Key, right in the middle of the Florida Keys, has a worst case scenario of a 7.12 foot rise in sea level by 2100, and Key West has a worst case scenario of a 7.05 foot rise.
The tool has six tabs to explore: Sea Level Rise, Local Scenarios, Mapping Confidence, Marsh Migration, Vulnerability and High Tide Flooding. You can see it for yourself here, and you can even plug in your own address.