Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the Atlantic and is predicted to intensify into a major hurricane as early as this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Erin, the fifth named storm of the 2025 season, formed on Monday near the Cabo Verde Islands with sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.
What can we expect?
The good news is that Erin is developing far from Florida and doesn’t pose any immediate threat to the U.S. Current models show it moving west towards the Caribbean and possibly north before reaching the Bahamas. Still, it is too early to determine the exact track and shifts to the forecast can occur as the storm evolves, so it is important to keep an eye out.
The NHC projects Erin will become a hurricane by this Wednesday before rapidly strengthening into a Category 3 storm by the weekend. The average date for the first hurricane of the season is August 11, while the first major hurricane typically doesn’t occur until September 1, AccuWeather notes.
“Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes (wind shear),” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect, as of Monday’s advisory. Though as Erin intensifies and potentially nears the East Coast, it could bring an increase in seas, surf and rip currents to beaches next weekend into the following week.
You can stay up-to-date on the NHC website here. Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with above-normal activity expected for this year.