Atlantic hurricane season is here, and for the first time in more than a decade, forecasters are saying activity is expected to be “below average.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this year’s forecast calls for a 55% chance of a below-normal season, with a total of eight to 14 named tropical storms. Of those, three to six are predicted to become hurricanes (winds reaching 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Comparatively, an average year sees about 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
NOAA hasn’t predicted a below-average hurricane season since 2015, a year driven by El Niño.
Why is it a slower season?
The main reason for this below-average forecast is the anticipated arrival of a strong El Niño. This natural phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the Pacific, causes increased vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin. Hurricanes thrive when wind shear is low, allowing thunderstorms to stack and circulate heat and moisture near the core.
There is an 82% chance of El Niño emerging soon (May-July 2026) and a 96% chance it will continue through the winter (December 2026-February 2027), per NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Why you should still be ready
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, usually peaking between mid-August and mid-October. Even with slower activity this year, residents shouldn’t drop their guard. Nature is unpredictable and the forecast only estimates how many storms may form, not specific paths or landfalls.
Officials stress that coastal communities should remain alert and with their hurricane kits regardless of a below-average season. For information on hurricane preparedness, visit weather.gov/safety.
