In the span of 24 hours, from Sunday to Monday, Hurricane Milton jumped from tropical storm status to a monstrous Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. And while its intensity has continued to fluctuate since, the storm is back to a Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph as of Wednesday morning.
This update comes from the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. advisory, which puts Milton at about 160 miles west-southwest of Fort Myers and 190 miles southwest of Tampa. Moving northeast at 17 mph, it is expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast as early as Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
You may have already guessed that this isn’t your typical storm because it has already shattered records.
Wind speeds
For starters, Milton stood out to forecasters for how quickly it exploded in strength and intensity on Monday, with wind speeds reaching 180 mph. This made it one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic, joining Hurricane Allen (1980) — the only storm on record to reach 190 mph of sustained winds — as well as Gilbert (1988), Dorian (2019) and Wilma (2005); all of which had wind speeds of 185 mph.
Milton is also the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this late in the calendar year. The latest a hurricane had 175 mph winds in the Atlantic was Hurricane Rita in September 22, 2005.
Low pressure
Hurricane Milton reached its peak intensity with a central pressure low of 897 mb, making it the fifth-strongest hurricane observed in the Atlantic Basin, according to The Weather Channel:
- Wilma (2005) at 882 mb
- Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb
- Labor Day Hurricane (1935) at 892 mb
- Rita (2005) at 895 mb
- Milton (2024) at 897 mb
Simply put, the lower the barometric pressure in hurricanes, the more dangerous the storm.
Florida track
While barometric pressure varies as Hurricane Milton moves through the Gulf, it’s expected to retain its status as a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) on its way to Florida. According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton is forecast to “remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight.”
Its path suggests it could make landfall somewhere between Tampa and Fort Myers late tonight, then move inland. Hurricane and storm surge warnings have been issued along the state’s west coast, and Tampa Bay could face a historic storm surge of 10 to 15 feet above ground level. State officials have also wanted residents to prepare for the largest evacuation Florida has seen since Hurricane Irma in 2017.
Regardless of where Milton will directly hit, much of the state is at risk of flash flooding, destructive winds and tornadoes. For more details on Milton’s path and all issued watches and warnings, visit the National Hurricane Center website.